As many grain traders focus on Argentina’s three-year drought, a meteorologist is using satellite imagery to make an alarming projection: the nation’s next soybean crop could fall to its lowest level in five years.
Mickael Attia, crop analyst for EarthDaily Analytics, forecasts the second-quarter soybean crop to be down to 36.9 million metric tonnes.
That is well below the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimate of 48 million tonnes, and would reach a level the exchange has not seen since 2018.
Argentina is the largest exporter of soybean meal and oil.
“It’s a bit aggressive, especially if there’s a change in the weather pattern in February, but right now it makes sense given the alarmingly low humidity levels,” Attia said in an interview.
His Vancouver-based company is part of a growing satellite analytics industry that is becoming increasingly involved in crop forecasting, often in conjunction with accounts in the field, as imagery and algorithms alone cannot tell all the information history.
Argentine crops are in a sticky spot after La Niña caused drought in farmland, devastated wheat and forced growers to delay soybean and corn planting.
With fieldwork still to be completed and a chance of rain in a few weeks, other forecasters have yet to revise preseason estimates.
The US Department of Agriculture estimated the soybean crop at 49.5 million tons, though it will update its forecast on Thursday.
The Rosario Stock Exchange, whose forecasts tend to lead other institutions, plans to publish its monthly report on Wednesday. Rosario and the Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires use farmer surveys.
While many soybean plants are in poor shape, La Niña is fading In theory, that should give way to rains in late January and early February, during yield-defining growing seasons, that could save the crop .
EarthDaily Analytics also forecasts an Argentine corn crop of 45.4 million tonnes, compared with an estimate of 50 million tonnes from the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange and the forecast of 55 million tonnes from the USDA.
Argentina is the third largest corn exporter in the world.
With information from Bloomberg