An uncertain international scenario with a combination of factors including economic slowdown, inflation, financial volatility, and lower capital inflows has slowed growth in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2022 and will further deepen that downward trend in 2023, said the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.
The body says the region will grow by just 1.3% next year.
“It is an extraordinary moment that requires extraordinary decisions” for countries to come out of the “numbness” of growth, said José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, ECLAC’s executive secretary.
ECLAC’s estimates are similar to those of the IMF, which forecasts growth of around 3.4% for this year and 1.7% for 2023.
According to ECLAC, Haiti and Paraguay will be the only countries with economic recession in 2022, of -2% and -0.3%, respectively.
In 2023, Haiti’s economy will shrink by -0.7%, and Chile’s – which is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2022 – will also enter recession with a -1.1% reduction in activity next year.
On the other hand, Paraguay is expected to grow by 4% in 2023.
Argentina will grow by 4.9% this year but will slow by 1% next year; Brazil by 2.9% and 0.9% respectively; Colombia will fall from 8% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023; and Mexico from 2.9% to 1.1%.