By Jonathan Carter
The term of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the Presidency of the Republic comes to an end approved by 41% of Brazilian voters and disapproved by 50%, according to a PoderData survey carried out from December 11 to 13, 2022. Another 9% did not know how to respond.
This is the last survey by PoderData before the inauguration of the president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), on January 1, 2023.
Despite the high rate of disapproval, the numbers show that there was a movement in favor of the government throughout the year. In the survey conducted from January 4th to 6th, 31% approved and 61% disapproved.
The Bolsonaro government has been recording fluctuations in approval and disapproval rates since the beginning of the series, in June 2020, when PoderData began asking respondents about how they evaluate federal management. For most of the timeline, disapproval outweighs approval.
The most favorable moment for the government was from August to October 2020, when the approval rate surpassed the 50% level and was above disapproval. In the round from August 17 to 19, 2020, the management was approved by 52% and disapproved by 40%.
The improvement in the assessment coincided with the period in which the administration made payments for the so-called coronavoucher – the federal aid of R$600 (US$113.6) for vulnerable people during the covid-19 pandemic.
However, after that, with the decrease in benefit values, the rates became unfavorable for the government again. The worst moment was 1 year later, in the round held from August 30 to September 1, 2021, the height of tension between the President of the Republic and the Federal Supreme Court – the following week, on the holiday of September 7, Bolsonaro would call the minister Alexandre de Moraes as a “scoundrel” and would say that he would not follow his court decisions.
In the round from August 30 to September 1, the government was approved by only 27% of voters and disapproved by 63%. The “alligator’s mouth” –difference between the two rates– peaked at 36 points. At that time, the country recorded almost 580,000 deaths from covid-19.
Read the full PoderData’s survey (in Brazilian Portuguese)
The survey was carried out by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group, with its own resources. Data were collected from December 11 to 13, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 2,500 interviews in 302 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%.
To reach 2,500 interviews that fill proportionally (as they appear in society) groups by gender, age, income, education and geographic location, PoderData makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 connections until the interviewees who faithfully represent the population as a whole are found. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.
DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS
Poder360 highlights government approval rates by demographic groups:
- gender – most women (56%) disapprove of the Bolsonaro government; most men (52%) approve of the management;
- age – among voters aged 45 to 59, the president’s tenure has 61% disapproval;
- region – residents of the Midwest are the ones who most approve of the management: 58%. In the Northeast, 57% disapprove of the current government;
- schooling – among those who completed higher education, 58% disapprove of the management carried out by the Chief Executive;
- income – Bolsonaro government has greater approval among those who receive 2 to 5 minimum wages (46%) and more than 5 minimum wages (48%).
BOLSONARO’S WORK
PoderData also asked respondents about how they evaluate the president’s work: good/great, regular or bad/terrible. Almost half (48%) of voters rated the current president’s work as poor/terrible, while 38% rated it as good/great. The most favorable rating range has risen 8 points since August.
STRATIFICATION
Here are the highlights of Poder360 by demographic groups:
- gender – most women (55%) consider the work done by Bolsonaro to be bad/terrible, while 46% of men rate it as good/great;
- region – the Southeast (53%) and Northeast (51%) are the regions in Brazil with the highest rates of bad/terrible;
- age – the chief executive’s job is bad/terrible for 57% of people aged 45 to 59 and for 54% of those aged 60 or over;
- income – among respondents who earn 2 to 5 minimum wages, 51% assess Bolsonaro’s work as bad or terrible.
POWERDATA
PoderData’s content can be read on social networks, where infographics and news are shared. Follow the profiles of Poder360’s research division on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and LinkedIn.
SEARCH AGGREGATOR
Poder360 maintains a collectionwith thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There are studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral polls available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the evolution of each candidate. Access the Survey Aggregator by clicking here.
The research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando Rodrigues, editorial director of Poder360, on his website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
METHODOLOGY
The PoderData survey was carried out from December 11 to 13, 2022. 2,500 people aged 16 or over were interviewed in 302 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. Parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in gender, age, education, region and income variables. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The interviews were conducted by telephone (to landlines and cell phones), through the AVR system (Audible Response Unit), in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds using the device’s keyboard. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.
For ease of reading, search results have been rounded. Because of this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results is different from 100. Differences between total frequencies and percentages in cross-variable tables may appear due to occurrences of non-response. This study was carried out with the resources of PoderData, a research company that is part of the Poder360 Jornalismo media group.
With information from Poder360