Brazil is also expected to lead the sugar market in this 2022/23 global crop, which tends to be characterized by low surplus production.
Recent rains in the center and south of the country, which have helped crop development for the next local crop, contribute to this picture.
Brazilian mills may export 30 million tons of sugar in the 2022/23 local crop, estimates Plinio Nastari, president of Datagro.
If confirmed, this volume would account for more than half of the sugar sold in the current international cycle – the consultant projects global shipments of 57 million tons.
This is likely to widen the gap between shipments from Brazil and India, the second-largest exporter of the commodity.
Authorities in New Delhi have indicated they should issue licenses to export 8 million tons this cycle, down from 11 million from last year’s crop.
According to Datagro, India is expected to produce 36 million tons of sugar this harvest, of which 4.5 million tons have already been converted to ethanol production.
In Brazil, the Central-South region alone could produce 36 million tons in the following local crop (2023/24), and there are also volumes in the North and Northeast.
The increase in Brazil’s weight on the world market increases the impact of climate and fuel prices in that country on global quotations.
The difference between global supply and demand in 2022/23 should be slight, at 1.87 million tons, Datagro forecasts.
With information from Valor