AgResource Brazil, a subsidiary of the North American AgResource Company, has released its estimate for the upcoming 2022/23 soybean harvest.
The estimate indicated a total area of 42.61 million hectares, a productivity of 3,549 kg per hectare (59.1 bags/ha), and a total production of 151.24 million tons.
According to the estimate, if consolidated, the crop will be 20.4% higher than the previous cycle, with current estimates indicating total production at 125.6 million tons.
This higher production should be due to the projected 2.78% increase in the harvested area, but mainly because the productivity is projected to be 17.2% higher than in cycle 21/22, indicated at 3,029 kg per hectare (50.4 bags/ha).
LA NIÑA LESS HARMFUL TO SOYBEANS
According to the consultancy’s market analyst, João Pedro Thieme, despite La Niña still acting until the beginning of 2023, the weather forecast models indicate that other weather components may bring more favorable conditions (compared to the last crop) for the Brazilian crop, concentrating greater risk in Argentina and the extreme south of Brazil.
“In addition, management changes may help the producer in the center-south region to mitigate part of the risk as in previous years.
“The history of crops does not indicate a reduction in productivity for two consecutive years (even when we had three La Niña years in a row). In this case, productivity usually returns closer to the trend line,” he points out.
With information from Canal Rural