The latest polls show that Luiz Lula da Silva’s (PT, left) lead over Jair Bolsonaro (PL, right) varies between 3.7 and 16 percentage points.
The Ipec (ex-Ibope) poll puts the socialist politician at 47% versus 31% for the conservative-religious chief executive.
At the same time, Paraná Pesquisas finds a technical tie between them, with the former president numerically ahead: 40.1% to 36.4%.
Seven days before the elections, scheduled for Oct. 2, two polls indicate a possible victory for Lula da Silva in the first round.
In addition to Ipec, Datafolha also shows Lula da Silva with 50% of the valid votes.
In the poll released on Thursday (22), the former president received 47% compared to 33% for the current head of government.
To win in the first round, a candidate must receive at least 50% plus 1 of the so-called “valid votes”.
Only the votes given to the candidates are valid, i.e., white and invalid votes are not considered.
Based on the polls, it is easy to determine if someone has a chance to win in the first round.
Just check if the percentage of the frontrunner in the polls exceeds the sum of all voting intentions of the other competitors.
In the latest Ipec poll, Lula da Silva comes in at 47% and his opponents at 44%.
The PowerData poll, conducted Sept. 18-20, shows the former president ahead with 44% of voting intentions. Bolsonaro had 37%.
PoderData’s poll has the highest frequency in the current election cycle.
It has been conducted every 15 days since 2021. In 2022, since late August, it has been offered weekly.
“This is very important because, in this way, we have a uniform curve of the results, which allows us to visualize any biases that may occur in each survey.
The progression of the curve is essential, not a single result.
And PoderData’s historical series is the most complete of all polls on voting intention in Brazil,” says 31-year-old political scientist Rodolfo Costa Pinto, coordinator of PoderData.