The Brazilian financial market raised its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022 to 2.10 percent from 2.02 percent and changed it to 0.37 percent from 0.39 percent for 2023, the Brazilian Central Bank announced Monday.
According to the Focus survey conducted by the central bank among the country’s main financial institutions, this was the ninth consecutive increase in the forecast, up from 1.97 percent four weeks ago.
As for inflation, the Brazilian market lowered its estimate for the end of this year to 6.70 percent from 6.82 percent and 2023 to 5.30 percent from 5.33 percent.
The official target is an inflation rate of 3.50 percent in 2022 and 3.25 percent next year, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points in both cases.
The market assumes that the key interest rate, currently at 13.75 percent per annum, will remain unchanged until the end of the year and then gradually decline to 11 percent in 2023.
As for the exchange rate of the Brazilian currency, which currently stands at 5.07 reais per dollar, an exchange rate of 5.20 reais per U.S. dollar has been forecast for both the end of the year and the coming year.
For the trade balance (exports and imports), a positive balance of $68.06 billion in 2022 and $60 billion in 2023 was estimated.
The inflow of foreign direct investment into Brazil was estimated at $58 billion in 2022 and $65.5 billion in 2023.