China’s largest rocket, the Long March 5B, which carried the Wentian laboratory module to the new space station, is expected to leave orbit and fall back to Earth.
The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies (CORDS) said the Long March 5B would plunge uncontrollably into Earth’s atmosphere on Sunday.
Read also: Check out our coverage on curated alternative narratives
The map posted on Twitter illustrates the possible crash sites. The map shows the forecast window where the rocket could land along the blue or yellow paths. Quite a large area, north and south of the equator.
Our latest prediction for #CZ5B rocket body reentry is:
🚀 31 Jul 2022 00:25 UTC ± 16 hours
Reentry will be along one of the ground tracks shown here. It is still too early to determine a meaningful debris footprint. Follow this page for updates: https://t.co/SxrMtcJnj0 pic.twitter.com/Xtmy26a7QF— The Aerospace Corporation (@AerospaceCorp) July 27, 2022
CORDS reports, “We estimate, based on previous experience, that between four, five, and nine tons, depending on the configuration, will survive re-entry.”
If it comes down, it will undoubtedly exceed the 1:10,000 threshold (risk of injury to humans on Earth), which is a generally accepted benchmark,” Ted Muelhaupt of the Aerospace Corporation said at a news conference Wednesday.
Two years ago, parts of one such rocket already crashed (see tweet above) – and landed in a village on Ivory Coast.
In 2021, missile parts fell into the Indian Ocean. And according to one expert, the rocket is crashing faster than the last due to higher solar activity.
Nevertheless, a prediction regarding the possible crash site remains very difficult. According to the expert, the highest probability is in the areas along the two yellow lines.
Solar activity is a big driver in anticipated reentry. There is more variation. This is coming down quicker than the last one due to this higher solar activity, therefore increased atmospheric drag. #CZ5B
— Nick Stewart (@NStewWX) July 27, 2022
The greatest danger in Europe is for the strip from Portugal through Spain and Italy to the Balkans. The Black Sea coast of Turkey is also included. On the other hand, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland are not at risk.