The Liberal Party (PL), the party of President Jair Bolsonaro, leads or is tied for first place in the polls for the Senate in five states and the Federal District (DF). It is the acronym with the largest number of competitive candidates, according to a survey conducted by Poder360.
The report compiled recent polls with verifiable origins from 24 states and the Federal District registered in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). PL pre-candidates lead in the Federal District, Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, and Sergipe. On the other hand, the Workers’ Party (PT) leads in four states.
Considering parties supporting Bolsonaro but not his party, the numbers increased. There are three competitive candidates from PP, one from PSC, and three from the Republicans. With the PL, they reach 13 in total. The left parties -PT, PDT, PSB, Pol- add up to 9 candidates in first or tied in that position.
Besides their possible arrival in the Senate, the parties are also aware of potential losses in their benches. The Upper House has 1/3 of its seats ending in 2023 – there are 27 seats in contention for the October elections.
Thirteen other senators are in the middle of their terms but will try for different positions in less than three months. In this scenario, the maximum loss for a party is when no senator is reelected or when those in midterm leave for other positions.
The main losers with the maximum loss scenario are MDB, PL, and PP, which could lose up to six senators each.
DRAFT 2023
Counting the competitive candidates of each party and removing the maximum loss of each bench, it is possible to project how many seats each acronym may have at the opening of the Senate year in 2023.
The PSD, led by Gilberto Kassab, is the one that does better in the relationship between competitive candidates and maximum loss. That is because the acronym has three candidates who lead alone or within the margin of error and can lose a maximum of three names. It would keep 12 senators. In the same scenario, PT, União Brasil, and MDB would be tied for second, with nine senators each.
Currently, the MDB has the largest bench in the upper house, with 12 senators. The party is followed by PSD, which has 11. In third place are tied PL, Podemos, PP, and União Brasil, with eight senators each.
With information from Poder360