RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil’s 2022/23 coffee crop was projected at 64.5 million 60 kg bags Wednesday by Dutch bank Rabobank, which lowered its estimate for total production from the 66.5 million bags seen earlier.
Rabobank said that in a recent expedition to 229 farms in Brazil, the good flowering seen last year “did not fulfill its initial promise,” resulting in a smaller-than-expected crop.
The bank sees Brazil’s Arabica coffee production in 2022/23 at 41.4 million bags while expecting harvests of the Robusta variety at a record 23.1 million bags.
“There was a sharp contrast between the excellent productivity of conillon (robusta) farms and the lower productivity of Arabica farms, especially considering that this was supposed to be an ‘in the up cycle’ season in Arabica areas,” RaboResearch analysts Carlos Mera and Guilherme Morya said in a report.
Arabica coffee plantations alternate years of high and low production. The 2022/23 crop is ‘up’ in the cycle, but frosts and the strongest drought in 90 years in 2021 have hurt prospects.
Analysts said the weather conditions led to higher pruning rates in Brazil’s coffee areas. They also noted a shift from coffee to other crops, such as beans, where frost and drought damage was extreme.
Rabobank further warned of some risks to Brazilian coffee next year due to the current fertilizer scenario.
Brazil imports large quantities of fertilizer from Russia, a trade likely to be disrupted amid the war with Ukraine as prices soar.
With information from Reuters