RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Mexico, and Brazil are among the two countries that Airbus estimates will order the most aircraft over the next two decades. Arturo Barreira, Airbus president for Latin America and the Caribbean, said the region would need about 2,460 new passenger and cargo aircraft over the next 20 years.
Fifty-six percent of the total will be needed to meet demand, while 44% will come from replacing older aircraft.
According to the CEO, demand will be bolstered by factors, such as the fact that 67% of the population is expected to be middle class by 2040, which will boost travel.
Airbus estimates that domestic and international passenger traffic in Latin America will grow by 3.9% annually over the next two decades. Domestic markets will see growth rates of 4.2% per year. Flights between countries in the region and the Caribbean and between Latin America and the rest of the world will grow by 3.5%.
Barreira pointed out that passenger traffic in Latin America has tripled since 2002 and is expected to double by 2040. Per capita travel rates will double in countries such as Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil, and even triple in the case of Chile.
For example, in the case of Mexico, it will rise from the current 0.5 percent to 0.9 percent.
The Airbus president for Latin America and the Caribbean said that deliveries for Mexico to companies such as Volaris and VivaAerobus would continue without specifying the exact volume of aircraft. He acknowledged that there had been delays in deliveries due to the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic.
VivaAerobus recently said it expects to deliver 10 to 12 aircraft, while Volaris expects to deliver about 15.
Barreira said that at the beginning of the pandemic, the company decided to reduce the production of A320 family aircraft to 40 per month, down from 60 before the health emergency. Last year, the number rose to 45 per month, and by next summer, it is expected to reach 65 aircraft.
He pointed out that 2021 was a year of recovery for the sector in Latin America, with some countries reaching almost the same level of air traffic as in 2019, such as Mexico or Colombia, where domestic travel rates were excellent.
According to Airbus, the in-service fleet in the region will double from 1,440 to 2,820 aircraft by 2040. Of the new passenger and cargo aircraft needed, 2,170 are small, 190 are medium, and 100 are significant. To operate this fleet, 33,000 new pilots will be required.
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
The value of the service market in the region will grow from 5.5 billion in 2021 to 19 billion in 2040. For Arturo Barreira, the most successful aircraft in the area is the A321 neo.