RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Economic Climate Index (ECI), measured by Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), dropped 2.8 points in the first quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter. With this, the indicator, built based on the evaluation of specialists in the country’s economy, reached 60.6 points on a scale of 0 to 200 points.
It is the worst result since the second quarter of 2020 (40.8 points). The fall was driven by the 39.1-point decline in the Present Situation Index, which measures the experts’ opinion regarding the present, reaching 15.4 points. On the other hand, the Expectations Index, which measures the evaluation regarding the future, rose 42.7 points, reaching 115.4 points.
The ECI is also measured in other Latin American countries, always based on the opinion of experts from these locations. The Brazilian ECI was below the region’s average (79 points) and had the worst performance among the ten Latin American nations. In the previous quarter, Argentina ranked last.
The best index went to Uruguay (135.4 points), followed by Paraguay (113.6 points), Colombia (109.4 points), Ecuador (93.7 points), and Mexico (81.3 points).
Besides Brazil, Argentina (67 points), Bolivia (71.4 points), Chile (71.7 points), and Peru (78.4 points) were below the Latin American average.
Compared to the previous quarter, Latin America lost 1.4 points. Among the major losses were Colombia (-28.2 points), Ecuador (-23.8 points), Paraguay (-19.7 points), and Bolivia (-15.9 points).
The only countries with growth compared to the previous quarter were Argentina (29.8 points) and Uruguay (15.7 points). Brazil’s loss of 2.8 points was the third-best result in the region.
PIB
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Brazil in 2022, according to the specialists consulted by FGV, dropped from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 0.7% in the first quarter of this year. It is also the worst result among the ten countries in the region.
The average growth forecast in Latin America is 2.2% for 2022. The best forecasts are for Colombia (3.9%), Bolivia (3.8%), Paraguay (3.6%), and Uruguay (3%). The other forecasts are: Peru (2.7%), Ecuador (2.6%), Mexico (2.5%), Argentina (2.5%), and Chile (2.4%).
With information from Agência Brasil