RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazilian agribusiness consultancy AgRural on Monday again cut its forecast for the country’s 2021/22 soybean crop due to bad weather and said it now expected production to reach 128.5 million tons.
BRAZIL SOYBEAN CROP
That was AgRural’s second forecast cut in less than a month. The consultancy had estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 133.4 million tons on January 6, down from the previously expected record of 144.7 million tons.
The new forecast represents a drop of 8.8 million tons from the previous season, AgRural said in a statement, adding that it considered a yield of 52.9 60-kilogram bags per hectare, the lowest since 2015/16.
According to the company, the move is due to lower yields expected for Brazil’s southernmost states and Mato Grosso do Sul, which were recently severely affected by dry and hot weather.
According to Reuters, the firm also mentioned lower expected production in the leading grain-producing state of Mato Grosso due to above-average rainfall.
AgRural also said Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop had reached 10% of the estimated area as of Thursday, up five percentage points from the previous week and above the 2% seen this time last year, when the oilseed was planted later due to weather issues.
On corn, the consultancy said the first-crop harvest in south-central Brazil reached 14%, above the 12% seen in the same period of 2020/21 but with “very low yields” seen in the south due to a severe drought.
The 2022 second corn crop, planted just after the soybean harvest and accounts for about 75% of Brazil’s total corn production in a given year, was estimated at 14%, up from 1.5% a year ago.