RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Over 30 cities in Bahia have been completely flooded due to heavy rainfall in the state, and the region is expected to experience continued rain in the coming days, said the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) head of forecast Francisco de Assis Diniz.
He said that rain in the region should ease between Sunday and Monday, but should pick up again as of today, with strong intensity through Wednesday, December 29.
“The equivalent to practically double for the month has rained in the past 4 days in the South and Southwest region of Bahia,” Diniz said.
According to him, the forecast “is not good for the coming days.” “Rain will persist overnight, albeit weaker, but from tomorrow through Wednesday, the rains will be heavier again in the South and Southwestern part of Bahia and also in the East, almost up to Salvador.”
The forecast is for rain to only let up from Wednesday on, with the region not expected to see precipitation for the rest of the end-of-year week, at most with light and isolated showers.
“The humidity convergence causing much rain in the summer period in the central-southeastern part of Brazil is highly concentrated between the north of Minas Gerais and Bahia, this has been happening for several days, and there is less rain and even a drought in the South region, with rain concentrated in the North of the country,” he says.
However, he notes that precipitation is likely to be directed to other areas of Brazil. “The situation is an effect of La Niña. Rain will start to descend again towards the South, and it will cause more rain in the region where floods are occurring, then it will go down to Minas Gerais and it will be concentrated between Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, where it will hit precisely during the New Year weekend, with heavy rains in the region.”
Diniz says that the forecast is for the north of São Paulo, the metropolitan region, the border with southeastern Minas Gerais, the Minas Gerais triangle and the whole of Rio de Janeiro to concentrate the heaviest rains.
“When a cold front passes through the southern region of Brazil, it is weak and settles between the Center and the Southeast of Brazil. It is fed by a convergence of humidity by winds, which carry much moisture from the Amazon and the Pacific, affecting the Southeast and, depending on the time of year, a little further North, due to the effect of La Niña,” the head of INMET explains.
According to Diniz, the current situation in Bahia was expected. “Every day alerts are being issued about heavy rains, well before Christmas we warned that the region would experience heavy rainfall during the Christmas period,” he says.
The La Niña weather phenomenon should remain “very active” in January, which will result in little rainfall in the South of Brazil and a repetition of the current situation in Bahia and Minas Gerais, with further heavy rains.
“We will still have significant amounts of rain in this region in January,” he says.