RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Argentina has been going through a severe economic crisis for more than three years, which has its origins in domestic problems. However, it was also aggravated by the pandemic.
Although the economy is expected to grow by around 10% of GDP this year, prospects are bleak. In this context, the establishment voted on the economists or technical team best qualified to design an economic program for Argentina.
The study was conducted by Poliarquía Consultores and took into account the opinion of 200 leaders, including national, provincial, and local leaders; legislators; businessmen; journalists; academics and researchers from public and private universities, and consultants.
“They are those people who, due to their position, knowledge or resources, can exert influence on the attitudes and behaviors of public opinion,” the report says. The study was conducted between the 3rd and 14th of last month through an online survey of fixed and mobile devices.
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The list of 10 economists has several surprises. In the first place, the Minister of Economy, Martin Guzman, appears in the ninth position, even though he is criticized precisely for not presenting an economic plan.
After the defeat in the legislative elections, the President and the minister said that they were going to send a “multiannual economic program” to Congress in the first week of December. Still, it has not yet been presented, and there is no news as to when it will be known.
In a radio interview last Sunday, Guzman said that “eventually it will be presented” and clarified that this plan is the agreement sought with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Another surprise is that there are no female economists in the ranking, even though there are several specialists in the country who stand out for their analysis of economic problems, such as Marina Dal Poggetto, executive director of EcoGo; Diana Mondino, an economist at Universidad del CEMA, and María Castiglioni Cotter, director of C&T Asesores Económicos.
Carlos Melconian, the founder of the consulting firm Macroview and Rodolfo Santangelo, was the economist most voted by the leaders consulted.
The former President of Banco Nación during the government of Mauricio Macri stands out not only for his analysis of the economic reality but also for his way of expressing the problems with clear and witty examples, which makes both the establishment and people far from the daily economic news want to listen to him.
One of his most frequent recent adjectives is to call Argentina “Berretalandia”. Melconian is also one of the economists most invited by business chambers to speak at conferences.
Recently, he was in the news for his appointment as head of the Institute of Studies on Argentine and Latin American Reality (Ieral), the think tank of the Fundación Mediterránea created by the former Minister of Economy Domingo Cavallo. Melconian was chosen to design an economic program for the next presidential term. He will be accompanied by his former vice-president at Banco Nación, Enrique Szewach.
Interestingly, the Fundación Mediterránea also appears in the ranking as the institute best qualified to design a plan since it was ranked third.
It is a non-profit civil association created in the city of Córdoba in 1977 at the initiative of 34 companies from Córdoba.
Until this year, it was chaired by economists Marcelo Cappelo and Jorge Vasconcelos, who were in charge of a team of almost 30 analysts who publish reports on national and Latin American economic problems and provide alternative solutions.
The other surprise of the ranking is that the second most voted economist is another Racing fan (like Melconian): the former Minister of Finance Hernán Lacunza, who is currently one of the economic referents Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change). The director of the consulting firm Empiria was also Minister of Economy of the Province of Buenos Aires and Chief Economist of the Central Bank between 2005 and 2010 when Martín Redrado was head of that entity.
The establishment usually recognizes in Lacunza that he assumed as Argentina’s minister at a complicated time, after the substantial devaluation produced in August 2019, following the defeat of Macrismo in the PASO of that year. His administration lasted only four months, and at that time, he decided to reschedule short-term peso debt maturities.
His former boss at the Central Bank was the fourth most chosen economist by the 200 leaders consulted. Redrado is director of Fundación Capital and the Master in Central Banks at the Asia School of Business in Malaysia, together with the Nobel Prize in Economics Robert Merton.
In addition, he was president of the National Securities Commission (CNV) and vice-chancellor. His professional experience also includes positions in international organizations, such as Senior Economic Advisor of the World Bank.
Redrado is an economic advisor to the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Sergio Massa, and is often a candidate for the Ministry of Economics.
The top 5 of the ranking is completed by analyst Ricardo Arriazu, the only economist who is part of the list without working in the public sector. He is a founding partner of Estudio Ricardo Arriazu y Asociados, a consulting firm specialized in international economic analysis and finance.
In the sixth and seventh positions are two other opposition referents, such as Congressman Luciano Laspina and former Minister of Economy Alfonso Prat-Gay. Both economists are linked to the Pro space, founded by Mauricio Macri.
In the eighth position is Emmanuel Álvarez Agis, Axel Kicillof’s Vice Minister of Economy. Although he is currently far from the Kirchnerist space, he is usually a source of consultation for business people due to his contacts with Government referents. He is a founding partner of the consulting firm PxQ and the economist Cynthia De Paz.
Finally, the top 10 is completed by the Fundación de Investigaciones Económicas Latinoamericanas (FIEL), which was created in 1964 and has Daniel Artana, Juan Luis Bour, Fernando Navajas and Santiago Urbiztondo as chief economists.
With information from Poliarquía Consultores and La Nacion