RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The production of major commodities such as sugar and coffee could drop by up to 59% in the long term due to climate change, according to a report by the Stockholm Environment Institute, which also forecasts higher wheat
supplies.
The United States, China and Brazil are “significant sources of climate risk for global commodity markets,” the report says, arguing that the changes will affect long standing trade flows worldwide, with the risk of social unrest.
In the U.S., corn production is estimated to drop by almost half in the long term (2070-2099) due to warmer temperatures, the institute said, posing risks to countries that buy the grain. Production in Russia and Canada would increase by 13% and 17%, respectively, but not enough to offset deficits elsewhere.
Although wheat production could increase by 14%, this would require an expensive production shift to Europe and regions of South America and Asia. Russia and Canada have ways to boost production of corn, soy and rice, but the crop areas would likely need to be shifted within those countries, the study’s authors said in a presentation.
The report, which comes ahead of the United Nations COP26 climate summit next month in Glasgow, calls for officials to look beyond national borders to fight climate change. The estimates focus on the impact of higher temperatures and exclude the consequences of extreme weather events.