RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazilian athletes have been presented since the event’s first day who, had they been assets in the Stock Exchange, would have reached high prices and with a trend to increase even further. Or assets with excellent potential at a discounted price that, if successful, would yield a much higher return to investors.
The Olympics, just like the financial market, are highly volatile and exciting, rendering any kind of projection very difficult.
At the moment, Brazil has surpassed the 20 medals won in Rio de Janeiro. The goal now is to top the number of gold medals won.
There were 7 gold medals won in Rio. So far, Brazil has claimed 4, with 5 finals, a semifinal, and a dispute for the bronze medal to come. Should it win all the possible medals listed below – a very difficult feat – Brazil would end up with a historic record of 9 gold, 4 silver, and 9 bronze medals, far surpassing Rio 2016’s 7-6-6 mark.
FRIDAY
Men’s Marathon: 7 PM
A fairly risky bet in the Olympic portfolio. One of the most traditional races in the Olympics, the men’s marathon is largely dominated by African countries, notably Kenya. Home to great endurance runners, Kenya is the country of origin of one of the greatest marathoners in history, if not the greatest: Eliud Kipchoge.
Champion at the 2016 Olympic Games, the Kenyan is the great favorite to win his second title. He has run 12 official marathons in his life, winning 11 and coming second in one. In addition to being the world record holder, with 2:01:39 achieved in Berlin in 2018, Kipchoge was the only one to run a marathon in under two hours, at 1:59:40 in Vienna in an experimental exhibition race in October 2019.
There are other Africans in the race, such as Ethiopian Kenenisa Bekele, Kipchoge’s compatriot; Kenyan Amos Kipruto, bronze medalist at the last World Championships; and also Kenyan Lawrence Cherono, winner of the Boston and Chicago marathons in 2019.
Two-time Olympic 10,000m champion Mo Farah from the UK has also been focusing on the marathon, having won Chicago in 2018. American Galen Rupp, bronze at Rio 2016; Tanzanian Alphonce Simbu, bronze at the 2017 World Championships; and the rest of the Ethiopian and Ugandan team also reach Tokyo with strong chances of winning a medal.
Brazil will have 3 athletes, but the portfolio is betting heavily on Daniel Chaves and Daniel Nascimento. Both have been setting excellent times and prepared in Kenya. Daniel Nascimento ran one marathon in his whole life and secured a spot in Tokyo with an excellent time.
The current heat of the Japanese summer could completely wipe out the Africans’ favoritism and surprises may occur.
If a parallel is drawn with the financial market, the Brazilians would be just like Bitcoin. They could soar tomorrow, just as they could be left far from the podium, watching the favorites take the medals.
Isaquais Queiroz: 9:30 PM and 11:10 PM
If he were an asset, the Bahian competing in speed canoeing would be that one company that exploded on the stock market after holding its IPO.
Unknown to most Brazilians until the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, the Bahian from Ubaitaba turned into a speed canoeing phenomenon, to the point of becoming the Brazilian who won the most medals in a single edition of the Olympic Games. Three, 2 silver and 1 bronze. Moreover, the canoeist has won 13 medals in world championships in different events.
He reached Tokyo trying to equal Robert Scheidt and Torben Grael’s record, the greatest medalists in Olympic history, with 5 victories. After completing the 1000m canoe doubles event in 4th place – in a very strong race and with an improvised duo as his partner in Rio 2016 was injured – he is now fully focused on the individual 1000m race.
He is the current world champion in this event. He holds 2 bronze medals in the main canoeing competition, back in 2018 and 2017. Yesterday he was the best in the qualifying heat, and secured himself a semifinal spot with the best time. Today he will compete in the semifinal at 9:30 PM (Brasília time). If he makes it – and everything suggests that he will – he will compete in the final at 11:10 PM. Isaquias assured that he will not compete for silver or bronze, but for gold.
“My goal was to leave Tokyo with two medals, that’s why I was sad. But a 4th place in the Olympic Games is a good result. Now I’m very focused, I’m giving it my all,” he told OTD.
His opponents will be French Adrien Bart (current world vice-champion), Czech Martin Fuksa (silver at the 2017 and 2018 world championships), German Conrad Schreber (who beat Isaquias this year at a World Cup round) and Sebastian Brendel, the current Olympic champion and world champion in 2017 and 2018. Sebastian is Isaquias’ greatest idol and he named his son after him.
He could be considered a blue chip. It is a race in which he depends only on his arms to win. There is no referee interference, nor anyone with better recent results than Isaquias Queiroz. It would be the safest option among all listings today, although there are chances that he will not reach the podium.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY MORNING
Brazil vs. Argentina, men’s volleyball bronze medal game: 1:30 AM
Since June, the possible assets that had it all to boom in the Olympic Games began to be listed. Men’s volleyball came as the first big bet due to the experienced and very strong squad and the Nations League title, winning every one with confidence.
Like the financial market, the Olympics are highly volatile. In Tokyo, the men’s team took a while to get into gear and was eliminated in the quarterfinals. The women’s team was more successful. They beat all their opponents with confidence – including Serbia, the defending Olympic champion, by 3 sets to 0.
In the quarterfinals, the men beat Japan and the women beat China. Attempting their 5th consecutive final, the men’s team succumbed to great rival Russia, even after winning the 3rd set 20-12, 5 points away from opening 2-1 on the scoreboard. On the other hand, the women’s team also overcame Russia in the quarterfinals, before crushing South Korea, despite news of a suspected doping by Tandara, who left the squad and is returning to Brazil.
The fight for bronze is now left for the men, which would further increase Brazil’s record of medals in an edition of the Games. It would also be the 5th consecutive Olympic medal (2 golds, 2 silvers and this possible bronze). Argentina will be its biggest rival, backed by its historic semi-final win and a 2-0 lead over Brazil in the group stage.
If it were an asset, it would have a devaluation risk. On the one hand, the history against the Argentines and the squad weigh favorably for the purchase. On the other hand, the emotion after the comeback against Russia and Argentina’s momentum after a historic result and the possibility of their first medal in the sport weigh in favor of buying. Therefore, the recommendation would be neutral. Other assets listed here may yield much more.
Men’s and Women’s Boxing: 2h45 AM and 3h15 AM
Boxing was included in the Olympic portfolio before the current buzz in the sport. At the time it was mentioned as an asset that could surprise on the “Olympic Stock Exchange,” there were 3 boxers in the quarterfinals. If it were an asset in the stock market, investors who bought it at the time of recommendation bought it at a completely discounted “price” and would now be grinning.
Hebert Conceição and Bia Ferreira fight at 2:45 AM and 3:15 AM respectively. Entry at the active time is still valid, as both have chances to win gold. However, the yield will be lower than if the asset had been bought last week.
Both have been extensively discussed. But, basically, the greatest chance lies with Bia Ferreira. World champion of the category, she will face a tough fight against the 2018 world champion. The current world champion has proven to be in shape and has won all her fights comfortably.
On the other hand, Hebert Conceição didn’t have as much favoritism as his countryman from Bahia. After a great fight, he beat the current world champion in the semifinal – who had beaten him in the last world championship semifinal, where he won bronze. In the final, he will face Ukrainian Oleksandr Khyzhniak, world champion in 2017, European champion in 2017, and two-time European Games champion (2013 and 2019).
They would be the biggest investment option in the portfolio at that point. The chances of gold are real, and, albeit with 2 silver medals, it would still be a good investment option in the portfolio from here on out.
The biggest risk is refereeing. The judges’ scores are extremely subjective. In an evenly matched fight, victory can go either way.
Equestrian, team jumping: 7 AM
Another asset was included in the portfolio even before the Olympics began. With tradition and Olympic history, Brazilian equestrian is in its best shape since the Athens Olympic Games in 2004, when Rodrigo Pessoa, record holder for Olympic participations, 7 in total, won gold in the individual event.
The team is comprised of experienced riders who throughout the Olympic cycle have stood on the podium at major competitions in Europe. The team is trained by coach Philippe Guerdat, Olympic champion who coached the French team in 2016.
For the Games, the Frenchman called Marlon Zanotelli, currently 7th in the world ranking; Pedro Veniss, rider with Olympic experience and champion with the Brazilian team in the Pan American Games; and Rodrigo Pessoa, Olympic champion and two-time bronze medalist, in 1996 and 2000.
In the qualifying round, held this morning (Brasília time), the trio had the mission to place Brazil among the top 10 in order to reach the final. Nineteen countries were in the competition and Brazil came 8th.
However, an excellent performance was seen from Zanotelli (he zeroed the course) and a good lap from Pedro Veniss (he only knocked down the second-to-last obstacle and lost a point for exceeding the time). Pessoa started with Brazil placed 5th, and could lose up to 25 points. With a restless horse, he lost 20, enough to qualify Brazil for the final.
After the ride, Rodrigo Pessoa announced that he will not compete in the final: “Today we were lucky to pass. Tomorrow is a new day and it ends here for me. My horse is in no condition to help the team. Tomorrow, Yuri [Mansur, alternative rider] should ride to fight for medals. Tomorrow the score is reset, and we will fight for medals. The experience at this moment counted, because I managed to lead the horse to the end. Horses are unpredictable and we were lucky.”
Yuri Mansur is another excellent rider who is always present on European podiums. He also took part in the individual jumping competition. He passed with no faults in the qualifying round to the final (Zanotelli, the best ranked, knocked one down and was eliminated). In the competition for medals he knocked down two and finished 20th. However, he is proving that his horse is in good shape and is in a better position to help the team, as Rodrigo himself stated.
Everything suggests that the gold medal will go to Sweden. The Nordics sent 3 riders to the gold medal tiebreaker, getting a silver medal, and zeroed all three rounds in the team heat. Other medal candidates were eliminated, and it will be a good competition. Belgium, Switzerland, Germany, France, USA and Great Britain will fight with Brazil for silver and bronze.
Brazil vs. Spain in men’s soccer: 8 AM
If the Olympics is extremely unpredictable, one can say that guessing who will be the Olympic soccer medalists is even more difficult. Since not all the world’s top players are allowed to participate (the International Football Federation allows only 3 players over the age of 23), it is difficult to know with which squad the countries will compete in the tournament.
In Brazil, national teams are always strong. However, releasing players from Brazilian and European clubs is not always easy. As a result, the national squad was not included at the start of last month, something that proved to be a mistake.
With Daniel Alves and Richarlison as the main names, the Brazilian team had a good performance, but far from charming. The team wavered somewhat during the tournament, but reached the final round with no slip-ups or premature crash in the quarterfinals, as occurred with the women’s team. After the penalty shootout victory against Mexico in the semifinals, the team qualified for its 4th consecutive Olympic final, and will fight for a second Olympic title.
Its opponent will be Spain, the European team that has taken the Olympic Games most “seriously.” The Furia, as it is known, sent 6 players who played in the Eurocup in June. In Japan, it also wavered like Brazil, almost missing the quarterfinals.
If it were an asset, it would be worth the investment. For being the current champion and because it is Brazil, it would be an interesting asset for anyone with cash available. But it is certainly not the best option for those who could only choose one. The yield would probably not be as high as the other options listed here.
Brazil vs. USA women’s volleyball, 8 AM
No bet was placed on women’s volleyball in June, which could be considered a mistake. At that time, Brazil’s volleyball was at an extremely discounted price. Until the pandemic, Brazil was ranked 5th in women’s volleyball behind China, Serbia, Italy, and the United States.
In the theoretically weakest group, Brazil beat Serbia with confidence and didn’t waver against the weakest teams in the group, such as Japan, Korea, Kenya, and the Dominican Republic.
In first place in the group, Brazil was somewhat unlucky and had to play Russia, the perennial Olympic rival of José Roberto Guimarães’ team. On the other hand, the potential semifinal would be played against the winner of the match between Turkey and Korea, theoretically weaker than Italy and Serbia.
In the quarterfinals, a phase in which they were defeated five years ago in Rio 2016, Brazil lost to Russia, but the entrance of opposite hitter Rosamaria and setter Macris – who was injured against Serbia in the group stage and had to leave the game – changed the game and led Brazil to victory by 3 sets to 1.
In the semifinals, played on Friday morning, Brazil was not shaken by the news of Tandara’s suspected doping, which removed her from the squad on the eve of the decisive match. The country confirmed its favoritism and crushed the Korean team.
Although the team is strong, playing its best and with good options on the bench to come in and change the game in case of disadvantage, the Brazilian team is not the favorite in the match against the Americans.
Top of the world ranking and current League of Nations champion, the United States won the group considered to be more difficult than Brazil. They easily beat the Dominican Republic and also Serbia in the semifinal, in a rematch of the Rio de Janeiro 2016 final.
Given all the matches between the two teams during the season, and for having a very solid squad, which does not depend only on a single scorer, the Americans are the favorites.
Brazil is light years ahead of what it was in the final in June when it lost 3 sets to 0, and it will be very difficult to lose again in 3 sets. The fact that the United States has never won Olympic gold in women’s doubles, having lost the last three editions (in 2016 to Serbia and two to Brazil) may also have a bearing.
The expectation is to close the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games with a golden key.