RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Brazilian winter corn crop in expected to reach 65.3 million tons this 2020/21 season, 14.9% less than last cycle, according to an estimate released today by Agroconsult. According to the consulting firm, the drop in relation to the potential estimated in January will reach 20 million tons.
The sharp drop is due to late planting, caused by the delay in the summer soy crop and dry weather. “Losses were not higher because the planting area grew,” said André Pessôa, partner of Agroconsult – who has just concluded this year’s Crop Rally, an expedition that visited the main producing states.
Pessôa believes that this is one of the most complex seasons in recent times. High prices prompted producers to increase investments in plantations, and the planted area reached 14.7 million hectares, 9.3% more than in the 2019/20 second crop year.
However, this planting was among the most delayed in history, which pushed crop development into a high climate risk calendar. “In some states, such as Paraná, we saw planting in May, when the ideal calendar is mid-February,” he said in an online press conference.
At the moment, Agroconsult estimates that the average crop yield will reach 74 bags per hectare, 22.2% lower than in the 2019/20 season. “Losses are still possible, because there is a lot of corn in the field and frost is forecast next week in Paraná,” Pessôa said. Frost could also hit São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso.
In the states of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Minas Gerais, the estimate is for productivity to drop over 30% compared to 2019/20. “The crop yield will only not be worse because in Mato Grosso things were bad, but not terrible,” the consultant said.
In Paraná, the average yield estimate is 58 bags per hectare, 31% below 2019/20. In Mato Grosso do Sul, Agroconsult estimates 54.5 bags per hectare, down 35% – the same percentage expected for Goiás, where the average should stand at 67.8 bags per hectare. In Mato Grosso, projections are for 94.5 bags per hectare, down “only” 14%.