RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The third wave of the coronavirus, which is beginning to show its signs in Brazil, will have a greater impact on politics than on the economy, affirms Credit Suisse in a report to clients on Wednesday, May 26.
Over the past two weeks, the number of cases has increased in regions such as the South and Midwest, the bank points out. While the rolling average of deaths remained steady at around 2,000 per day last month, that figure is much higher than the peak in 2020, of 1,050 deaths.
“Although economic activity has positively surprised in the second wave and the consensus is that the third outbreak of cases should not stop the resumption of economic activity, it poses serious risks to public accounts and fiscal sustainability and could make the political environment more volatile, which could indirectly hinder GDP growth,” Solange Srour and Lucas Vilela point out.