RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – (Reuters) Soft commodities expert Judith Ganes came to Brazil this month in a bid to inspect coffee fields, only to learn about potential losses that could hit as much as 50% of next year’s crop in certain areas of the largest global producer and exporter.
Ganes told Reuters she decided to visit coffee farms after producers were able to harvest one of the best quality crops in Brazil’s history. While dry weather is good at the time of harvest, a prolonged drought fueled speculation about a weakening of Brazil’s coffee trees in the 2021 cycle.
“In the face of so much conflicting information, I decided to come to Brazil to see the situation myself,” said the U.S. national by telephone from Panama, where she returned after a seven-day expedition through the main Arabica producing regions of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo.
“Most of the time I can say that I couldn’t believe how bad the crops are, and I came to Brazil thinking it could be the opposite,” said Ganes, who has 37 years of experience and is president of JGanes Consulting.
She noted that it is still not possible to estimate how bad the situation is for Brazil’s Arabica beans, whose harvest normally begins in May. But Ganes said she saw areas in such bad shape that they would not produce a single kilo.
There will be major failure. I saw areas with 100% losses, 50% losses, 30% losses,” she said.
Brazil’s coffee crop in 2020 reached an all time high of 63 million 60-kg bags, including the Arabica and Robusta varieties, according to government data. Consultancies estimate Brazil harvested almost 70 million 60-kilo bags.
This record was possible with a strong increase in Arabica production during 2020, a positive year in coffee’s biennial cycle.