RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Contagion from the novel coronavirus in Brazil stopped declining after three continuous weeks of deceleration, according to calculations from Imperial College London, one of the leading global epidemic research institutions.
For the ninth consecutive week, the country shows a rate above 1, which means that transmission is out of control. The number, also called Rt, tells how many people on average each person infected with the novel coronavirus is infecting. The rate calculated this week stands at 1.06, slightly above the 1.05 of the preceding week.
It shows that every 100 infected people pass on the novel coronavirus to another 106, who in turn pass it on to 112.36 and so on, causing the disease to spread with increasing speed in the country. Imperial College’s epidemic study center uses the official number of deaths in its calculations.
The rate of infection refers to the time of infection; therefore, the impact of any preventive measures is seen within about two weeks. The W.H.O. (World Health Organization) has also observed that in large and unequal countries, such as Brazil, the dynamics of the epidemic vary greatly between regions, and increased monitoring (with testing and tracking) is required to locate the greatest risks and suppress contagion.
Brazil and Colombia were the only South American countries that failed to record a drop in contagion, among the six countries monitored for active transmission (at least ten deaths in each of the previous two weeks and at least one hundred deaths since the start of the pandemic).
The contagion rate in Colombia increased from 1.1 last week to 1.36. Argentina dropped from 1.29 to 1.2, Chile from 1.12 to 1.08, Bolivia from 1.36 to 1.07, and Peru from 1.36 to 1.02. Based on the number of deaths recorded in Brazil, scientists also estimate that the number of cases of the novel coronavirus in the country is about three times the declared figure: the accumulated total of infected Brazilians may be over three million. To obtain this estimate, Imperial College relies on the death register, which is less underreported, and considers the assumption that the deaths are equivalent to 1.38 percent of the cases reported 14 days before.
For the total of 52,645 deaths recorded up to Tuesday, June 23rd, the calculation shows that there could be over 3.8 million people infected with the virus, from the start of the pandemic until two weeks ago. Scientists also estimate that the number of deaths by Covid-19 in Brazil in the week that began on June 21st is 7,900, pointing to an increase over the preceding week.
The number of estimated deaths is the highest among the 52 countries monitored by Imperial College this week. In second place comes Mexico, with 4,420 – the US is not included in this report. In terms of contagion, the Brazilian rate is the 32nd highest among the 52 countries.
Source: Folhapress