RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – (Analysis) President Jair Bolsonaro intends to intensify the preparation of the safety net he has been working to build in the legislature to shield himself from impeachment in the event that the unfolding of the arrest of retired state police officer Fabrício Queiroz exacerbates the current political crisis.
On Thursday, June 18th, the same day that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s former adviser was arrested, the President promoted a lunch with congressional deputies and said he intends to hold regular meetings with legislators.
On another front, Planalto Palace aides say the President has signaled that new nominees from the Centrão are to be appointed to second- and third-tier government jobs in the coming days, in an attempt to secure the group’s support at a time of government fragility.
For now, Centrão leaders are trying to downplay the arrest of Flávio’s former adviser, but they know that the political situation could deteriorate due to new developments in the case.
Queiroz was arrested in a property in Atibaia, São Paulo, owned by Frederick Wassef, the attorney in charge of Flávio and Bolsonaro’s defense in court cases. The warrant for Queiroz’s arrest was issued by a Rio de Janeiro criminal court.
According to people close to the President’s family, there is concern that Queiroz will be pressured to the point of accepting a plea bargain.
In addition to the fact that the retired police officer has been arrested, there is also an arrest warrant against his wife, Márcia Aguiar, who was on Flávio’s staff when he was at the Rio de Janeiro’s Legislative Assembly.
Members of the President’s legal team are particularly concerned that Márcia and the couple’s daughter, Nathália Queiroz, may also be pressured to denounce the President or his son.
Aides are also working to disassociate the President from attorney Wassef, who has been working as the family’s defense attorney and has been considered close to Bolsonaro since at least 2014.
Ministers have advised Bolsonaro to refrain from publicly talking about Queiroz and his judicial problems. Members of the military wing in the Cabinet say the President needs to stop encouraging negative agendas and boost the government’s actions. Bolsonaro and his team don’t know what’s ahead and therefore haven’t defined how the President will behave. On the other hand, he has already been striving to pacify his relationship with the STF and to build a solid base in Congress, hoping to secure the 172 votes needed to halt impeachment proceedings.
On Thursday, despite visibly worn out by his critical week, the President maintained a lunch he had arranged the day before with Federal Deputy Fábio Ramalho (MDB-MG), during the swearing-in ceremony of the new Communications Minister, Fábio Faria.
Ramalho has a congenial way about him and often builds bridges over lunches and dinners that include legislators of different parties. Last week’s luncheon was attended by ten deputies from parties such as MDB, PP, PL and PSL. “He [Bolsonaro] said, ‘I’m going to have a few more luncheons here. Constant dialogue is required. We have to talk to everybody,'” Ramalho said to the Folha reporter. According to the deputy, the next lunch is expected to be held next month.
With the potential escalation of the crisis, the President’s advisers expect that the Centrão, a bloc of legislators that has been negotiating patronage positions in exchange for the pledge of support, will boost its demands and ask for more positions – and more important ones, not just second and third-tier jobs.
Centrão leaders reject claims that they have asked to recreate ministries or even that they want to hold a mnisterial portfolio.
Despite the President’s offensive, there is doubt within the Centrão as to the extent to which the party bloc could support Bolsonaro should the crisis escalate. One legislator recalled that no leader of the Centrão had publicly defended the President after Queiroz’s arrest.
The same leader points out that, as with ex-president Dilma Rousseff, if Bolsonaro’s situation deteriorates too far, there is no point in awarding patronage positions and releasing legislative budget riders. In the end, everyone ends up leaving the government. The Queiroz chapter was only the last of one of the worst weeks Bolsonaro has faced in his one and a half years in office.
When he failed to conceal his bad mood from supporters as he left the Alvorada Palace on Monday, June 15th, Bolsonaro was starting the list of problems he would face.
At that time, he knew that he would have to raise a white flag at the STF after his supporters launched fireworks at the court building and his then Minister of Education, Abraham Weintraub, publicly reiterated his criticism of the magistrates. He closed the week by handing over Weintraub’s head as a sign of peace.
Bolsonaro also knew that one of his most prominent supporters, Sara Giromini, known as Sara Winter, had been arrested that morning. She was denounced by the Federal District Prosecutor’s Office on charges of slander and threat against Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes.
The President ordered his security guards to take his supporters inside the Alvorada Palace. He wanted to stay away from the press in order not to upset himself. It didn’t work.
“Ma’am, if I’m going to address every individual issue in the whole of Brazil, I will be mayor, not the President of the Republic,” he said to a woman who asked for an appointment with Rogério Marinho, the Minister of Regional Development. “I can’t be an appointments secretary. Please seek the Ministry of Health,” he said to another supporter.
But the president knew that his streak of bad luck was just beginning. On Tuesday, June 16th, the judge overseeing the 2018 stabbing case ordered the Federal Police to finalize the investigation that determined Adélio Bispo acted alone, undermining the conspiracy discourse that Bolsonaro has been trying to preserve since the date of the attack.
That same day, the President had already awakened with his supporters being visited by Federal Police agents, with search and seizure warrants in hand, as part of the inquiry into the production of fake news.
On his return home later that day, more bad news: 11 legislators from his political shock troop were the target of bank secrecy breaches. All this was at the request of the PGR (Office of the Prosecutor General) and authorized by Justice Moraes.
On Wednesday, June 17th, Bolsonaro released a phrase with a threatening tone following the action authorized by the Court. The most pacifying tone came from Fábio Faria, who took office that day calling for a “patriotic armistice”.
Little did he know that the inauguration would still cause him a headache. Not by the Minister, whose appointment brought the Centrão back to the halls of the Planalto, but by the presence at the ceremony of attorney Wassef. After all, it was in Wassef’s country home that the police found and arrested Queiroz on Thursday morning.
Bolsonaro was cornered. He dodged even his supporters and made his weekly live broadcast that day with only his sign language interpreter. Looking dejected, he tried to distance himself from the new crisis.
Source: Folhapress