RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – With the rapid spread of the disease in the country, which broke the record of 751 deaths in 24 hours on Friday, May 8th, the end of the pandemic is now expected to be on November 11th. According to the Singapore survey, Brazil is currently experiencing the peak of the virus, which should begin to decline from July onwards.
The projected “theoretical” end of Covid-19 on a global scale has also increased. Now, it is expected to end on January 5th, 2021 – until April 28th, the forecast was for its full control by December 1st; on May 6th, it was expected to end on December 31st, on New Year’s Eve.
The peak of the disease in the world, according to the study, occurred in April this year, a month in which the United States, the epicenter of the disease, reached the mark of one million people infected.
The number of confirmed cases of the disease in the world is expected to reach four million this weekend. So far, according to real-time monitoring from Johns Hopkins University, 3,959,249 people have been infected.
The projection for the end of the disease in Italy, one of the countries most affected by the virus according to Johns Hopkins, is for October 23rd.
Spain, the second most affected country, which reported another 179 daily deaths on Saturday and will begin to relax quarantine, may see the end of the outbreak on August 15th.
The United Kingdom, which is the fourth-most affected country, is expected to reach the end of the outbreak on September 30th.
The study
As part of the methodology, the study was based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, or Recovered) epidemiological model, used in the study of epidemics, which considers susceptible (S), infectious (I) and recovered (R) individuals. Those considered susceptible are those not infected by, or susceptible to, the virus.
The infectious are those who have been contaminated and are able to transmit the disease. Finally, those recovered are people who no longer have the virus, either by immunization or because they died. One of the main criticisms of the SIR model for assessing pandemics is precisely the underreporting of cases.
The researchers who conducted the study alerted that the dates should be considered with reservations because there are several variables unforeseen in the research and that may influence the duration of the pandemic.
These variables are factors such as demographic issues in each country, the potential for the same person to be infected more than once by the disease, and the rate of population adherence to measures to fight the coronavirus, such as social isolation and quarantine.
Source: Exame