RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – This summer, the South Atlantic water temperature condition will lead the cold fronts to move more slowly along the southern and southeastern coasts, helping to increase the potential for rainfall over the continent.
Many areas of instability form over the region in January and February, and it often rains constantly. Volumes will be significant and the accumulated total may be well above average, says Climatempo.
“In summer, this is a very favorable condition for the formation of ZCAS”, comments meteorologist Patricia Madeira, from the “Climatempo” climate forecast team. The ZCAS (Atlantic Convergence Zone) is expected to cause intense rainfall over the state of Bahia this summer.
Another important factor in the 2019/2020 summer will be the negative phase of the Atlantic dipole.
Patricia Madeira explains that “the negative phase is when the South Atlantic gets warmer than the North Atlantic, on the northern coast of Brazil. In this case the ITCZ
(Intertropical Convergence Zone) drops further and causes more rainfall in the north of the Northeast and north of the North Region”.
The ITCZ is one of the main meteorological phenomena affecting the South American summer and is accountable for most of the rainfall in large portions of the Northeast and Northern Regions of Brazil.
Below is a summary of what the months of January, February, and March in the Northeast will be like:
January: Heavy rainfall and milder than average heat in the whole Brazilian Northeast.
February: Less rainfall than in January, but still above average in all areas, and below normal temperature. The formation of ZCAS leads to persistent rainfall in Bahia in February. In the northern part of the region, the ITCZ’s performance is quite evident, particularly in February.
March: Rainfall decreases in all areas, although southern Bahia will still record above-average volumes with a cold front remaining in the region.
“Climatempo” advises that the 2019/2020 summer will technically remain a neutral weather situation in the Equatorial Pacific. The water temperature of the Atlantic Ocean, particularly the South Atlantic, which comprises the entire eastern coast of Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, will have a greater influence on the rainfall and temperature behavior over Brazil this summer.