Paraguay will elect its next president on April 30.
On the ballot is a ruling party candidate who favors extending decades-old diplomatic ties with Taiwan and an opposition rival who favors rapprochement with China to boost the landlocked country’s agriculture-dependent economy.
From the Paraguayan capital of Asuncion to Taipei and Washington, diplomats, officials – and farmers – are closely watching a tight election race that could decide the landlocked South American nation’s future relationship with Taiwan.
Pressure is mounting in the country neighboring Brazil, Argentina, and Bolivia, especially from the powerful agricultural lobby, to tilt relations with China and open the Asian country’s lucrative markets to Paraguay’s soybeans and beef, its main exports.
“We are a food-producing country that does not sell to the world’s largest buyer of food,” Pedro Galli, president of the Paraguay Agricultural Association (ARP), told Reuters.
His organization represents about 3,000 local farmers.
If Paraguay were to recognize China, it would be a blow to Taiwan, which must fend off Beijing’s economic might to hold on to its remaining 13 allies worldwide, and a new sign of China’s growing influence in a region Washington has long considered its backyard.
Galli pointed to the recognition of China by other countries in the region, which in recent years have included Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.
Honduras was the latest country to switch sides in March.
“We’re watching the party from the balcony,” Galli said, referring to the losses the agricultural sector has taken in exports.
“It’s just us and the Guatemalans left.”
Opposition candidate Efraín Alegre, who represents a center-left coalition, told Reuters in January and April that if elected president, he would promote relations with China, the world’s largest beef and soybeans importer.
“We will be where it is convenient. Otherwise, it would betray the country,” Alegre said in the April 17 interview.
“How could I refuse a relationship that benefits all Paraguayans, a people that needs development, investment, and industry?”
The ruling conservative Colorado Party’s candidate, Santiago Peña, has promised to stick with Taiwan.
A bipartisan delegation visited the island in February to reassure the Taiwanese.
Taipei, which claims to support its allies economically, said last week it was “puzzled” by the Paraguayan opposition’s stance.
It would do everything possible to maintain diplomatic relations with the country.
China has long argued that democratically ruled Taiwan is part of its territory and has no right to state-to-state relations, something Taipei strongly opposes.
China demands that countries with which it maintains relations recognize its position.
NOT IF, BUT WHEN
In diplomatic circles in Asunción, the prevailing feeling is that change is inevitable – regardless of the outcome of the elections.
“With Paraguay, it’s a question of when, not if,” a senior European diplomat reiterated to Reuters, adding that Paraguay could change “within the next two years” given pressures from the local business community and the fragile global economy.
Even if the ruling Colorado Party wins the elections, its leadership may not support Taiwan as staunchly as incumbent President Mario Abdo, whose father helped establish relations with Taiwan more than six decades ago as a political adviser.
“We are brotherly peoples, and we share a common destiny,” Abdo stressed during his visit in February.
“Current President Abdo had a strong personal commitment to Taiwan that goes back to his father,” said Evan Ellis, who specializes in China-Latin America relations at the US Army War College Institute. ”
It is unclear whether the successor will have the same personal attachment.”