Brazil faces a serious economic threat after US President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on all goods Brazil exports to the United States, Brazil’s second-largest trading partner.
According to a detailed study by the Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais (Fiemg), these tariffs could cut up to R$175 ($31) billion from Brazil’s GDP over the next ten years.
Official trade data shows Brazil exported nearly $41 billion in goods to the US last year, including oil, steel, machinery, airplanes, and coffee. These exports support manufacturers, farmers, and workers in Brazil’s most competitive sectors.
The Fiemg report provides the most comprehensive analysis of the situation. It warns that manufacturing and agriculture will take the hardest hit.
More than 1.3 million jobs could be lost as factories and farms cut output. National tax collections could drop by about R$7 billion, and the country’s total wages might fall nearly R$36 billion.
Manufacturers of high-value products, such as aircraft and electronics, face the loss of their main customer market. For the US, these tariffs could force industries to look for new suppliers, disrupting established trade flows.
Officials in Brazil have stated they want to avoid a tit-for-tat escalation and hope to find a diplomatic solution, recognizing that alternatives to the US market are limited and cannot quickly accept the volume of goods currently exported.
Everyday Brazilians may feel the effects through job cuts, rising prices, and pressure on local businesses.
The figures and warnings from Fiemg and official government statistics make clear that both countries could suffer for years if negotiations stall and tariffs stay in place.