China’s decision to impose additional tariffs on US agricultural products, including soybeans, may shift demand toward Brazil, according to a study by Cogo Inteligência em Agronegócio.
The new tariffs, effective March 10, include a 10% levy on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, and beef, and a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton. Additionally, China has suspended import licenses for three major US soybean exporters.
These measures come in retaliation for tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods. Brazil already supplies nearly 75% of China’s soybean imports. In 2024, Brazil exported approximately 74.6 million tonnes of soybeans to China, while the US contributed just 18 million tonnes.
With Brazilian soybean production projected to reach a record 166.3 million tonnes in 2025—a 15.4% increase from the previous year—the country is well-positioned to meet any increased Chinese demand.
Brazilian soybeans also hold a pricing advantage. In February 2025, Brazilian soybeans cost R$2520 ($420) per tonne with freight included, compared to R$2706 ($451) for US soybeans shipped from the Pacific Northwest.
Brazil’s Agricultural Gains Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions
This cost difference stems from favorable weather conditions and a weaker Brazilian real. The potential benefits for Brazil mirror trends observed during former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
Similar trade tensions at the time led to increased reliance on Brazilian soybeans. Between 2018 and 2019, export premiums for Brazilian soybeans surged by an average of 148%.
However, the impact of China’s tariffs extends beyond soybeans. The new levies on corn may encourage China to diversify its imports further, benefiting South American suppliers like Brazil and Argentina.
Other commodities such as beef and cotton could also see increased Chinese demand. For US farmers, the outlook remains challenging. Reduced access to the Chinese market could lead to lower prices and force many to pivot toward alternative crops like corn.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s ability to capitalize on geopolitical shifts highlights its growing influence in global agricultural markets. These developments suggest opportunities for Brazil’s agribusiness sector.
However, they remain contingent on how trade dynamics evolve in the coming months. The situation underscores the interconnectedness of global markets and the far-reaching consequences of trade disputes between economic superpowers.