RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – In a significant meta-study, two scientists from the Universities of Bern (Switzerland) and Oxford (UK) examined the effects of Corona measures in no fewer than 169 countries, and thus allegedly of 98 percent of the world’s population. The name of the study is The Effects of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on Covid-19 Mortality: A Generalized Synthetic Control Approach Across 169 Countries.
As a “highlight,” you can already read at the beginning of the study:
- Applying the GSC method, we do not find substantial and consistent Covid-19-related fatality-reducing effects of any NPI under investigation.
GSC here stands for a scientific methodology called “Generalized Synthetic Control,” as the very name of the study indicates. The mathematical and theoretical basis of this method is explained here.
Ten NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) were studied:
- School closures
- Job closures
- Public transportation closures
- Lockdown (staying at home)
- Movement restrictions
- Restriction of international travel
- Protection for senior citizens
- Contact tracing
None of the measures studied contributed significantly (i.e., reliably) to reducing deaths.
While no direct effect of measures such as mandatory masks and lockdowns is discernible, people are getting bogged down in theoretical assumptions of possibly prevented deaths.
This coincides with claims about vaccinations that would allegedly prevent a more severe course – without this being seriously and, above all, scientifically measurable.
The scientists’ state:
Results: We find no substantial and consistent Covid-19-related death-reducing effects of any of the NPIs studied. We see a preliminary trend reversal in Covid-19-related deaths approximately 30 days after the strict stay-at-home rules and to a lesser extent after the implementation of the facility closures. Our model can identify a death-reducing effect of COVID-19 vaccination as a proof of concept. In addition, our results are robust to several critical sensitivity tests.
CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that many implemented NPIs may not have exerted a significant Covid-19-related death-reducing effect. However, NPIs may have helped mitigate Covid-19-related deaths by preventing exponential growth in fatalities. In addition, vaccination was effective in reducing Covid-19-related deaths.
Download the study here.