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Analysis: high interest rates, restricted credit and government noise indicate weaker Brazilian GDP in 2023

By Vandré Kramer

High interest rates. Tighter credit, with companies like Americanas in crisis and increased defaults. Government noise, pressuring inflation expectations and interest rates. End of post-Covid economic momentum.

The combination of these factors contributes to an increasingly evident slowdown in economic activity. One of the signals was the 0.2% shrinkage of GDP in the fourth quarter.

The picture, however, is not homogeneous.

The countryside's expectations are favorable, given the scenario of a super crop of grain. In services, the growth rate is still strong, but the pace of expansion has been losing strength.

In trade . . .

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